Welcome to the Monthly St. Augustine Market Report for May 2023. In this month’s market update I wanted to include a look at where home prices are going, inventory, and foreclosures. Let’s get started.
Where Are Home Prices Going?
To begin I want to put this question on the table, have home value declines stabilized? To answer that let’s look at Case-Shiller, FHFA, and CoreLogic, and this graph of month-over-month prices going all the way back to January of last year.
And we started the year last year, we started with a bang and then around the middle of the year started to see home prices, month-over-month, start to slightly decrease, mostly due to rising mortgage rates. Fast-forward to the latest information here, February in FHFA and Case-Shiller, March in CoreLogic, we start to see that turn happening. We’ll continue to watch it but it appears some of the worst in-home price declines are behind us. In fact, Black Knight said
“Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of major US markets. Fast-forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180 with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.”
What is Going on with Inventory?
But let's turn our attention to inventory. There's been a lot of information in the last few weeks. One of the reasons that we're seeing an uptick in prices is because of the lack of inventory and I think this graphic sums it up. If you’ve been following all of our market updates you've seen it before, but this is a look at the buyer's market versus the seller's market. Over the last several years we've been in this seller's market and still are there today. We need more inventory and homes that are priced right are selling quickly today.
What is Going on with Foreclosures?
Continuing with that line of thought, often we hear news articles like these stating that inventory is going to rise with a flood of foreclosures coming to market. While factually correct, oftentimes these articles are very misleading. First, there were over 1 million fewer foreclosures in the last year than the average heading into 2020. So anytime you look at information, we always want to go back to the last 3 normal, pre-pandemic years of 2017, 2018, and 2019 as the pandemic years saw a moratorium on foreclosures. And as we've come out of the moratorium, we should expect foreclosures to rise but not at the rate that's going to dramatically impact inventory and shoot us up into a buyer's market.
Finally here is a snapshot of our local data. When looking into real estate it is very important that you look for local area statistics and not rely on national news. Every area is unique and his impacted differently by exterior factors. It is important that you find a local area expert that you know and trust. I myself grew up in St. Augustine and many of the agents at First Coast Realty are 20+ year residents in our area. We are your Northeast Florida local area experts. We have an experienced team of professions working for you whether you are looking to buy, sell, invest, or find someone to manage your rental we have an agent for you. I’ll see you again next month with a new update on our local market.
So What Does This Mean For Buyers and Sellers?
So what does all this mean? Interest rates are still scary but owning a home is still far less expensive and much more stable than renting. Prices have begun falling but the ratio of sales price to list price still hovers close to 100%. It is more important than ever for buyers to go in strong with an offer and have all their ducks in a row. You might not get a second chance.
To the sellers out there, it is important that you price your property correctly the first time. The market favors sellers right now but there is a limit. Make sure you work with a seasoned professional. Call First Coast Realty to receive a complimentary Broker’s Price Opinion.
Whether you are looking to buy or sell, First Coast Realty would welcome the opportunity to earn your business. Feel free to reach out to us on Facebook or Twitter and we would be happy to assist you in getting the ball rolling. Or, to talk to a qualified, experienced agent call/text today 904-494-8408 or email email@example.com